Diverging trends in US summer dewpoint since 1948

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Scheff, J., & Burroughs, J. C. (2023). Diverging trends in US summer dewpoint since 1948. International Journal Of Climatology. https://doi.org/doi:10.1002/joc.8081
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Faculty, Increases in summer humidity are a basic threat to human survival, because the body cannot shed heat by sweating if absolute humidity is too high. However, climate change trends and patterns of extreme humidity have been much less studied than those of extreme temperature. Here, using station data, we provide an up-to-date and comprehensive assessment of the patterns and 1948–2020 trends of summertime dewpoint (Td) in the contiguous United States, for multiple percentiles of its distribution ranging from median to extreme. We find that summer-median Td is maximized in the Southeast and along the coasts, while extreme summer Td is counterintuitively higher in the Midwest than in much of the Southeast, and is higher in Western agricultural valleys than on the Pacific coast. In contrast, 1948–2020 trends in summer Td are broadly consistent across percentiles, but quite divergent regionally. Namely, median and extreme Td have strongly increased in Florida, South Texas, parts of California and from the Northeast to the Northern Plains, but have declined in the Intermountain West and changed little elsewhere, often despite clear summertime warming. These regional Td non-increases contradict basic theory, but agree with several recent studies. In addition, median Td is increasing more systematically than extreme Td in several parts of the eastern United States. Future work will seek to uncover the reasons for all of these divergences and to better understand the fate of summer humidity worldwide.

Details
Title

Diverging trends in US summer dewpoint since 1948

Author(s)

Scheff, Jacob
Burroughs, James Cody

UNC Charlotte Affiliate Type

Faculty

Extent

1 online resource

Date Created

2023

Genre

articles

Resource Type

text

Abstract

Increases in summer humidity are a basic threat to human survival, because the body cannot shed heat by sweating if absolute humidity is too high. However, climate change trends and patterns of extreme humidity have been much less studied than those of extreme temperature. Here, using station data, we provide an up-to-date and comprehensive assessment of the patterns and 1948–2020 trends of summertime dewpoint (Td) in the contiguous United States, for multiple percentiles of its distribution ranging from median to extreme. We find that summer-median Td is maximized in the Southeast and along the coasts, while extreme summer Td is counterintuitively higher in the Midwest than in much of the Southeast, and is higher in Western agricultural valleys than on the Pacific coast. In contrast, 1948–2020 trends in summer Td are broadly consistent across percentiles, but quite divergent regionally. Namely, median and extreme Td have strongly increased in Florida, South Texas, parts of California and from the Northeast to the Northern Plains, but have declined in the Intermountain West and changed little elsewhere, often despite clear summertime warming. These regional Td non-increases contradict basic theory, but agree with several recent studies. In addition, median Td is increasing more systematically than extreme Td in several parts of the eastern United States. Future work will seek to uncover the reasons for all of these divergences and to better understand the fate of summer humidity worldwide.

Subjects--Topics

Climatic changes
Earth sciences

Is Part Of

International journal of climatology

Language

English

Published Version (Please cite this version)

doi:10.1002/joc.8081

Publisher's Version

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8081

Permalink

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13093/work:1039

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